John McTernan: Why Makerfield finishes Starmer

Optimism is back as the currency of British politics, former Labour adviser writes for Democracy for Sale.

Well that was decisive. Andy Burnham won Thursday’s by-election by the proverbial landslide. Inevitably the last 24 hours have been filled with instant analysis of what it all means. But there’s one person I really wanted to hear from: John McTernan.

McTernan was director of political operations under Tony Blair, among many other roles in the party, and is one of the sharpest commentators around on Labour. So I was delighted when he agreed to write for Democracy for Sale about how progressive politics beat Nigel Farage and Reform in Makerfield - and can do so again.

Hope won the day for Burnham

By John McTernan

The King in the North is marching south triumphantly. Andy Burnham’s victory in Makerfield was so decisive that it exposes the hollowness of Keir Starmer’s position as prime minister.

While before the by-election defiance from No 10 was understandable as a delaying tactic, now it is seen for what it is - delusional. The numbers don’t lie. Starmer has halved the Labour vote nationally during his two years of leadership, while Burnham doubled Labour’s vote share in just the six weeks since the local elections.

It wasn’t even close. ‘Andy For Us’, as the campaign was branded, stormed home in Makerfield with 55 per cent of the vote and a majority of 9,000 over Reform - itself larger than the entire vote won by Rupert Lowe’s Restore, the insurgent on Farage’s right. The turnout was higher than the general election and Labour’s vote was higher in this by-election than in 2024.

The last time Labour increased both its share and its raw number of votes while defending a seat in government was six decades ago, when Kevin McNamara held Hull North in 1966 - a result that encouraged Harold Wilson to call the general election that gave Labour its landslide. The vote share of the Greens and the Lib Dems plummeted as their supporters voted Labour against Reform.

The message is clear - Labour can beat Reform and beat them decisively. But the key to this is being seen clearly as the leader of the ‘progressive bloc’ in UK politics.

At the moment, British politics has as many viable political parties as a European country, but without proportional representation. Reform, Restore and the Conservatives are in the right bloc with Labour, the Lib Dems and the Greens on the progressive side.

In an evenly split six party contest, 17 per cent is a plurality. Which is why Reform were predicted as easy winners of the next general election - before this week’s by-election in Makerfield. Farage’s 26 per cent support in national polls was a political ‘category killer’ when Labour were losing votes to both them and to the Greens.

This by-election was a mirror image to the one in Gorton and Denton earlier in the year. There, Starmer barred Burnham from standing and immediately ceded to the Greens the position of progressive party best placed to defeat Reform.

That victory gave the Greens credibility and momentum which took them to stunning wins across England. It was also the beginning of the slow death of Starmer’s authority within the Labour party. Authority which disappeared completely when the result was announced.

Standing in Makerfield was a high-risk strategy for Burnham. This is Reform heartland - not just one of their target seats, but what should be one of their dozen or so safest seats if they aspire to form a government. Makerfield, remember, voted 50 per cent Reform and only 27 per cent Labour in the local elections six weeks ago. The blow to Farage’s ambitions will be substantial.

The next round of MRP polls - the seat-by-seat polling predictions - will show Reform going backwards. Partly because a swing on this scale puts many Labour MPs back in the lead locally, but also because a split on the right - caused by the rising popularity of Restore. Just as Andy Burnham unites the progressive bloc behind Labour, so Rupert Lowe splinters the regressive one.

That leads to the most obvious implication of this result - Labour’s leadership election is over before it even formally started. Consider this a primary in which Andy Burnham emerged as the only candidate who can win the convention.

The question is not if Starmer hands over to Burnham but when. The most dangerous place in politics is standing between an MP and their re-election and that is where the prime minister is now.

Starmer should meet Andy Burnham on Monday - in the prime minister’s office in the Commons, not Downing Street - to agree a smooth and dignified transition. That prevents a brutal battle within Labour - and stops Starmer being humiliated, which would be an awful ending for the man who overturned a Tory landslide with one of his own. It also allows for Burnham’s team to have access to civil servants to develop a full-blown plan for turning ‘Manchesterism’ into a transformative project for the UK.

Hope won the day for Andy Burnham in Makerfield, now optimism is back as the currency of UK politics. Two years of miserabilism will be banished in as many months, a turning point to welcome.

John McTernan is a writer, commentator and former Labour party adviser.

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